A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
